Gold Slips 3% on Dhanteras 2025 as MCX Corrects Record High

When Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India wished the nation a happy Dhanteras on Dhanteras 2025India, the country’s most auspicious day for buying gold, the market’s mood turned surprisingly jittery. On Saturday, October 18, 2025, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) saw 24‑carat bullion tumble roughly 3 % to ₹1,25,957 per 10 grams, down from a fresh record of ₹1,32,294 set just a day earlier.

Why the sudden correction?

Two consecutive days of price erosion came after an eight‑week rally that saw gold climb more than 10 % since early September. Analysts point to a wave of profit‑taking as geopolitical jitters eased – the Israel‑Hamas ceasefire talks, soothing of crude‑oil shocks, and a steadier US dollar all reduced the safe‑haven premium investors typically pay for the metal.

"The market was simply overstretched," said Rohan Mehta, senior research analyst at Gold Advisory Services. "When the news tone shifted, the futures traders on MCX moved fast to lock in gains, pushing the index down."

Retail prices – a different story

While MCX futures slipped, the physical market painted a rosier picture. The India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. (IBJA) released indicative rates on October 17 that still hovered near ₹12,600 per gram for 22‑karat gold. Even more striking, Hindustan Times reported a premium‑laden 24‑karat price of ₹1,32,953 per 10 grams on Dhanteras – a full ₹3,350 above the previous day’s MCX level.

Goodreturns data corroborated the premium gap, showing city‑wise rates of ₹11,995 per gram for 22K and ₹13,086 per gram for 24K on the same day. In Delhi, New Delhi dealers quoted ₹1,27,100 per 10 grams, a figure that still outstripped the MCX price by over ₹1,000.

What retailers are saying

Tanishq, the flagship jeweller of Titan Company, warned on its website that stock might run out fast, hinting at sustained consumer enthusiasm despite the futures dip. "Won’t be surprised if we run out," the brand’s spokesperson wrote ahead of the festive rush.

Local jeweller Rajesh Kumar of a Delhi showroom told reporters, "Customers still see gold as a safe‑store of value, especially on Dhanteras. Even if the MCX price drops, the retail premium stays because of inventory costs and the cultural push to buy today rather than tomorrow."

Historical perspective – Dhanteras and gold buying

Traditionally, Dhanteras marks the start of a nine‑day shopping spree that culminates in Diwali. Data from the past five years show an average 8‑10 % rise in gold prices during the week, driven by a blend of consumer demand and speculative buying.

For context, September 2025 recorded a steady climb: 22K gold rose from ₹9,705 per gram on September 1 to ₹10,765 by month‑end, while 24K jumped from ₹10,588 to ₹11,744 – both reflecting roughly +11 % growth. By mid‑October, the metal was up nearly +10 % year‑to‑date, a rare bull run for the sector.

Impact on households and investors

India’s middle class, which accounts for roughly 70 % of domestic gold demand, faces a delicate balance. On the one hand, the correction offers a breather for those who had been watching cash‑out thresholds. On the other, the lingering retail premium means many will still spend more than the spot price.

“For a family saving ₹2 lakh for a wedding, a 3 % dip in futures might look like a win, but the actual out‑of‑pocket cost remains high because the dealer premium hasn’t shifted,” explains Anita Sharma, a financial planner based in Mumbai. “The key is to watch whether the premium contracts in the next week leading up to Diwali.”

What’s next for gold prices?

Market watchers expect the coming days to be decisive. If geopolitical tensions stay muted, the futures market could see further modest pullbacks, possibly bringing MCX levels back to the ₹1,20,000–₹1,22,000 range.

Retailers, however, are bracing for a potential price surge ahead of Diwali, traditionally the biggest gold‑buying day in India. Analyst Rohan Mehta cautions, "Liquidity in the physical market is constrained; any supply‑side shock could push premiums sharply higher, even if futures stay subdued."

Background deep dive – why gold matters in India

Gold isn’t just an investment in India; it’s woven into rituals, weddings, and the very notion of wealth. The reverence dates back to the Vedic era, when the goddess Lakshmi was invoked during Dhanteras to bless households with prosperity. This cultural embedment means that price movements are rarely purely financial – emotions and superstition play a big role.

In the last decade, the government's push for digital gold and the introduction of the RBI‑backed Gold Monetisation Scheme have added layers to the market, but the core impulse to hold physical gold during auspicious days remains unchanged.